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| Countdown to 2023 General Elections |
As Nigerians await February 25, to vote for their next President in the forthcoming general elections, with four presidential candidates of note, will be hard fought. In this review by Crisis Group, it outlines what is at stake and how key actors are preparing for the polls.
Why are these elections significant, and how do they differ from Nigeria’s other post-1999 polls?
On 25 February 2023, Nigeria will hold presidential and federal parliamentary elections, followed by gubernatorial and state legislative elections on 11 March. After eight years in office, 80-year-old President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is due to step down, as are seventeen of the 36 state governors.
The end of Buhari’s presidency marks 24 years of unbroken democracy in Nigeria – which made a transition from military to civilian rule in 1999 – and the longest such period in the country’s experience.
It will also be the second time during this period that a Nigerian president has peacefully left office after two terms, as required by the constitution (the first was Olusegun Obasanjo’s exit in 2007). Goodluck Jonathan’s peaceful exit after a single term in 2015 was another landmark in Nigeria’s democratic progress.
But the public is understandably unexcited by these milestones; many are increasingly disenchanted with the government, with politicians and, indeed, with the way democracy has worked – or not worked – in Nigeria.
Many view the promise of Buhari’s presidency, once celebrated, as sadly unfulfilled. A recent poll, moreover, found that 77 per cent of Nigerians are dissatisfied with the quality of the country’s politics, particularly the failure to curb corruption and improve livelihoods. Thus, while the 2023 polls will in one sense be an affirmation of Nigeria’s electoral democracy, many voters will also be looking at it as an opportunity for a reset in the Country, nurturing hopes that new leadership will commit to reforming the country’s governance, restoring its security, which has deteriorated badly on Buhari’s watch, and rebooting its development.
The high-stakes elections promise to be notably different from previous polls in several respects. First, the number of credible presidential candidates is higher than in the past.
Since Nigeria restored democratic rule in 1999, presidential polls have essentially been two-horse races between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which held the presidency from 1999 to 2015, and various minor opposition parties. The latter, which eventually merged to form the APC, won the presidency in 2015 and 2019. This time around, in addition to the major-party candidates, Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC), two other parties are also fielding popular contenders for the top job.
The Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi, who at 61 is younger than his main rivals, has particularly energised voters, precisely because he is seen as a counterweight to what many regard as the political establishment’s venality and greed.
The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is also notable, as he too offers voters an alternative to the APC and PDP, particularly in the North West and North East geopolitical zones. This novel situation, in which four presidential candidates are drawing significant attention, means that the 2023 race is less predictable than past polls, even if the incumbent APC enjoys a strong advantage.
Secondly, and relatedly, Nigerian youth are excited about the vote. A twelve-month registration drive captured over eleven million new Voters, 84 per cent of whom are aged between eighteen and 34.
The main driver of this trend is the sense of political agency that millions of young, tech-savvy Nigerians derive from using social media. Observers say this feeling comes largely from the #EndSARS protests against police brutality in 2020, when social media helped galvanise a nationwide mobilisation that eventually led to change (though perhaps nominal, in that abuses have persisted after Buhari disbanded the unit responsible for the worst ones).
But another reason for the higher interest among young voters is frustration, particularly with Nigeria’s economic doldrums, which pushed about eight million people below the poverty line between 2020 and 2021, with five million more joining their ranks between January and September, according to World Bank estimates.
Job prospects for young people have dwindled rather than expanded during Buhari’s tenure, while food prices have risen at the fastest rate in seventeen years. The National Bureau of Statistics reports that 63 per cent of the population of approximately 210 million is now “multi-dimensionally poor”.
Thirdly, the public’s confidence in the credibility of the polls is growing, which is likely to bolster voter turnout. Following amendments to electoral laws, the electoral commission introduced several changes to the voting system, the most significant of which is that polling stations will transmit ballots electronically to the commission’s headquarters in the capital city, Abuja, in real time, while accreditation will be done by BVAS
Despite lingering doubts about connectivity in remote parts of the country, many Nigerians believe these innovations will be helpful in preventing anyone from altering results manually at polling stations or state collation centres, as poll workers colluding with party agents and thugs had done in the past.
Indeed, INEC Chairman - Mahmood Yakubu has predicted that the 2023 elections will be the “best” in Nigeria’s history, citing as reasons for optimism the off-cycle elections in Ekiti and Osun states, in June and July, respectively, which reported significantly fewer polling problems and violence than in prior years. Yakubu has also repeatedly offered assurances that election preparations are proceeding as planned and on schedule.
The countdown to the Elections begins today. Tell us your views on the elections via the comment section below.